Cycles Of Turmoil

"You Are Here"

I once believed the System would never risk a third world war. But that hinged on another belief that the System’s control over this planet was monolithic. While its tentacles run incredibly deep into most of the power structures in this world we can now see this power does not outweigh the nationalistic tendencies of certain maverick autocrats.

I believe that Putin was entirely on board with The Fourth Industrial Revolution. He said as much and has attended Davos many times. But what good is this “Great Reset” if you have no country in which to implement it? This is the dilemma that Putin believed himself to be in and now we have an incredibly dangerous rift in the echelons of power. This rift will only widen as the new “Axis” powers smell blood in the waters of the Empire Of Lies.

Cycles Of Turmoil

You are here…

It seems clear now the System has made a devastating miscalculation. It thought it had free rein to wreak havoc on humanity and be in a position to control it all when the smoke cleared.

Decades of relative peace made it forget the penchant the human race has for war and destruction and our innate willingness to kill each other.

The West and the East are now in an existential battle for survival. Failure in Ukraine would be akin to suicide. China cannot allow Russia to fail as it knows it will be next. The US cannot allow Russia to succeed as that will hasten the demise of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. We are starting to see cracks appear. Putin’s “Gas For Rubles” scheme has sent the Ruble into the stratosphere. Just imagine what “Wheat For Rubles” or “Fertilizer For Rubles” or “Metals For Rubles” will mean for the Dollar.

The Nail In The Coffin

I know our minds have been occupied with the so-called pandemic and the situation in Ukraine but I need to remind you about a little stretch of sea called the “Strait of Hormuz”.

We are starting to hear the chatter of a major Israeli attack on Iran. If such an attack were to take place, will Iran retaliate by mining the Strait of Hormuz and shutting off a fifth of the world’s oil supply and the majority of Qatar’s LNG? Europe has been talking about weaning itself off Russian energy. What happens if it’s immediately weaned off Middle East energy too?

And while the US 5th Fleet is dealing with the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, what happens when China decides the time is perfect to annex Taiwan? Do you think the West can fight on 2 fronts as well as a proxy war in Ukraine?

No, that could never happen. It’s not like Russia, China and Iran are allies or anything.

Energy Shock and the coming Food Crisis

My Energy Shock doesn’t require any action in the Strait of Hormuz though. Shortages and inflation can take care of that just as easily. Energy and population have an intrinsic bond. The more energy you have the more people you have. It’s really quite that simple. In 1922 the world’s population was just under 2 billion. The discovery of fossil fuels allowed us to quadruple the world’s population. That population relies on fuel (diesel) for mass agriculture and fertilizer (natural gas). For example, major producers of soybeans in Brazil have announced they will be using 25% less fertilizer this year due to rising costs. One of these producers cultivates an area bigger than Delaware. Less fertilizer = less food. When you interrupt that energy supply, physically or economically, people starve. And starve they will. Later this year.

Because if higher energy costs and a shortage of fertilizer were not big enough issues to deal with the Grand Solar Minimum is already wreaking havoc on crop yields all over the world.

Yea, those are skulls…

Winter wheat in the US is down 8% and drought in India slashed winter wheat yields. France, Europe’s biggest grain producer, is experiencing drought conditions that are expected to have a devastating effect on winter wheat yields. Countries around the world are becoming protectionist when it comes to their food exports and are simply refusing to export. Ukraine, the world’s 4th largest grain exporter can’t even get its meager harvest to market.

Spring planting in the US has been hampered by cold and wet conditions with just 22% of all corn planted so far. That’s 42 percentage points below last year’s pace and 28 points behind the 5-year average. They are literally running out of time to get crops in the ground.

The Late Iron Age Collapse

I have discussed the inevitable economic collapse in previous articles. I believe we’ll see it in 2023 although I do wonder if the System will be so keen to engineer it if they feel they don’t have such a firm grip on the world’s power structures as they thought they once had. Rampant inflation and civil unrest could easily be triggers too. The East could also trigger it.

Whatever the ultimate future might be we are at the end of an era. Do you feel it? Sometimes I feel like I’m living through history. Experiencing a societal collapse in slow-motion. Maybe one day they will refer to these times as the Late Iron Age Collapse. It would not be without historical precedence.

The Late Bronze Age Collapse was a societal collapse that happened between 1200 and 1150 BCE. It was a violent, sudden, and culturally disruptive event that covered Southeast Europe, West Asia, North Africa, and the Near East. The few cultures that survived (Egypt and Assyria) were severely weakened and suffered a sharp economic decline. Mycenaean Greece, Cyprus, and the Hittite Empire of Anatolia were completely destroyed along with dozens of cities all over the Levant. The Bronze Age collapse marked the start of what has been called the Greek Dark Ages, which lasted roughly 400 years and ended with the establishment of Archaic Greece.

I have been fascinated by this topic for decades and many theories have been brought forward to explain this incredible event. Much has been made of the Sea Peoples, a loose collection of peoples with no known origins that laid waste to cities in the region. It is now thought that these people were migrants, fleeing areas wracked with drought. These invaders brought with them new tactics and new weapons that were able to counter the chariot-dominant armies of the time. These marauders disrupted the trade routes (supply chains) that brought in tin from Afghanistan. No tin, no bronze, no technology.

A general systems collapse is now thought to have occurred in the whole civilization of the Late Bronze Age. In general systems collapse theory, societal collapse results from an increase in social complexity beyond a sustainable level. The growing complexity and specialization of the Late Bronze Age’s political, economic, and social organization made the organization of civilization too intricate to reestablish once disrupted. That could explain why the collapse was so widespread and able to render the Bronze Age civilizations incapable of recovery. The critical flaws of the Late Bronze Age were its centralization, specialization, complexity, and top-heavy political structure. These flaws then were exposed by sociopolitical and geopolitical events of the time.

Does any of that sound familiar?

Time Is Short

I haven’t posted in 5 months. I’ve been super busy getting ready. I have been learning how to grow food on a large plot of land. I built 2 chicken coops, the second one is 100sq ft. We have 23 chickens right now. I invested in a rice planting machine and the 2 machines needed for harvesting. I learned from an old rice farmer how to plant rice seedlings and have 40 trays ready to go. We expect to get 300-350kg of rice from our 2 paddy fields.

We just did our first potato harvest and we are lucky enough here in Japan to get a second harvest from August to November. We are growing spinach, beans, peas, peppers, lettuce, eggplant, pumpkin, corn, squash, sunflowers, tomatoes, cucumbers, melon, watermelon, sweet potato, onions, and asparagus. We also have 60 fruit trees. I made contact with a local pig farmer and we now get truckloads of free pig manure compost.

There are no losers in this equation. If nothing comes to pass I have learned new skills that will last a lifetime, have spent precious countless hours with my family and found a rewarding new hobby.

Times will never again be as good as they are now (not for a long time anyway). Look around you when you sit with your family at the dinner table. These are the good times. Cherish them.

Time is short. Use it wisely.